Miners going broke – worst still to come

Already high bankruptcy and default rates in mining & metals and oil & gas will only accelerate this year and the prolonged downturn in commodities will increasingly spill over into other sectors.

In the US the rate of bankruptcies, distressed exchanges. missed payments and chapter 11s will reach 6.2%. That's mostly on the back of increasing stress in the resources sector.

In the US, the default rate among speculative-graded Moody's-rated metals and mining companies is forecast to climb to 11.5%, and for oil and gas companies to increase to 10.3%. Earlier this year Moody's predicted a default rate among speculative and investment grade issuers of more than 7%.

Moody's embarked on a sector-wide review of the 87 global mining majors that it covers including entities such as Chile's Codelco, Kazakhstan's Kazatomprom, Russia's Alrosa and China's Minmetals which enjoy the financial backing of the state.

By the end of the April 34 companies had their debt ratings axed including marquee names like Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton (down two notches), Goldcorp and Chile's state-owned Codelco. A number also lost their investment grade rating for the first time such as Anglo American and Vale, both down three notches. Vale Canada were cut deep into junk territory after being downgraded a full five notches in February.

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